Western assessments Sana a will firmly strike deep into Riyadh and Abu Dhabi at the lowest escalation targeting it
The Yemeni and regional arena is currently living through a pivotal moment where political calculations intersect with military transformations, while international estimates compete in an attempt to read the course of events and evaluate the current situation, along with the calculations of peace and war within the trajectory of the war on Yemen—a war initiated by Saudi Arabia within a broad international coalition that has not ceased for over ten years.
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Amidst this situation, and in an attempt to extrapolate these contexts and deconstruct the problematic situation, the American research center “Soufan” presented an analytical reading in recent hours, examining the latest developments of the Yemeni scene in the south and the intentions of the war coalition on Yemen led by Saudi Arabia, including explicit warnings to Riyadh and Abu Dhabi about the consequences of any potential escalation against Sana’a.
The essence of this reading confirms that Yemen has become a central axis in the regional security equation and that the recent military and political moves by the forces of the war coalition on Yemen, its international backers, and their tools inside Yemen seek to redraw the form of the Yemeni state and the landscape of the war on the country in general. At the same time, it claims the existence of deep divisions between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi—which Sana’a denies, considering it a deceptive prelude paving the way for an aggressive move against Yemen.
The center claims that the sudden attack recently carried out by the Emirati-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) forces in Hadramout reflects the reality of the explosion of old tensions between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh and reveals the first fundamental change in the political and military scene since the ceasefire agreement between Sana’a and Riyadh in 2022. The center’s reading also clarifies
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